The COVID-19-related restrictions on German public life in the winter half of 2020/21 have again noticeably limited the consumption possibilities of private households. This requires a proper allocation of R&D investments, reaping the benefits of industrial data and an accelerated diffusion of cross-sectoral technologies like AI. Strong reform effort of both the government and corporate sector is needed in order to secure Germany’s place in the "best-of-all-worlds" scenario. For the new government complacency or reactive policies are no options – "High-Tech Made in Germany" might turn out to be an upside scenario. By plotting these two threats on separate axes, we then develop four scenarios and identify key drivers that will define Germany‘s position on these axes. As key threats to Germany’s "business model" (export-driven with a strong innovative industrial base), we identify (i) a continued erosion of the liberal rule-based trading and investment order and (ii) the falling behind in the global tech race with respect to Green-tech, AI and IoT. By applying the concept of a SWOT analysis, we aim at kicking off a debate about possible trajectories for the German economy in the post-Merkel era. Īt the onset of this decisive election year, Germany finds itself confronted with an increasingly multipolar world, a weakened liberal, rule-based world order and rapid technological change. With Merkel’s bonus for the CDU/CSU fading, vaccine problems continuing and the surprising revival of the Liberals, other coalition options for the Greens might open up. While another six months until federal elections is a long time in politics, the state elections serve as a reminder that a conservative-green coalition which is the consensus so far, is not a foregone conclusion. Nevertheless, Laschet’s chances for Merkel’s succession remain intact, in our view. The new CDU party leader Armin Laschet was not able to change the party’s fortunes. ![]() However, nondescript CDU candidates, allegations around mask procurement deals and growing discontent about pandemic management are behind the heavy defeats. The CDU was up against two extremely popular prime ministers who appeal to voters across the political camps. ![]() In yesterday’s regional elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), the CDU achieved disappointing results and thus faces a dismal start into this election year.
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